October 14, 1998 transcript # 255-3
Subject(s):ocean forecasts
Title: FORECASTING HAM

Hi, I’m Dave Thurlow from the Mount Washington Observatory. This is The Weather Notebook.

(Sound of forecast over ham radio)

That’s Herb Hilgenberg from Toronto. He’s providing weather forecasts for boaters sailing on the Atlantic Ocean, via a ham radio. Now where most marine forecasts tend to be general in nature, a single forecast for a large area of the ocean, Herb’s success lies in the fact that he gives specific weather forecasts for each boat that asks for his forecast. I asked him what he provides the typical user.

Herb: "Two key things. Number one: I do not use or copy, so to speak, the weather forecast issued by other organizations. So I do my own interpretations and analysis. That’s number one. Number two; I do a micro forecast. First, I estimate where I think you’re going to be for each day for the next 4 or 5 days. And then I move the weather around to predict what the weather’s going to be like when you approach each of these points."

Dave: "Do you get information from other boats?"

Herb: "I get information from other boats in the area and that information helps me to ascertain whether my preliminary analysis or synoptic analysis is correct. But if it’s different, it gives me an opportunity to make adjustments and changes and change the forecast on the spot and modify it into the following day."

Herb’s forecasting technique has quickly spread throughout the boating community, purely from word of mouth. And at times, as many as 80 boats anxiously sit by their radios, waiting for his forecast on the open sea.

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