November 4, 1998 transcript # 258-3
Subject(s): Shenandoah National Park, ice storm, forest fire
Title: A Potential Tinderbox

Hi, I’m Dave Thurlow and today on The Weather Notebook, producer James Jones explores why the weather over the next couple of years has the power to create two very different situations in Virginia’s Shenandoah National Park.

Jim: "The ice storm of 1998 has littered the forest floor with toppled trees and branches all across the 90-mile long park.

But there may be a good side to the story. Ecologists say all that downed wood will eventually rot and add valuable nutrients to the forest, enriching land that was farmed out in the late 1800’s.

That is, as long as there’s enough rain over the next few years. The storm carved huge openings in the forest canopy, and if it doesn’t rain, all that downed timber will be baked dry by the summer sun. If that happens, two very different weather events that recently hit the forest could conspire to create a new threat to the park. Steven Bair is the backcountry supervisor for the hardest hit section of the park."

Steve: "There’s some concern about how fire may be more prevalent here in the forest with all these downed limbs. Downed limbs will rot fairly readily in this eastern deciduous forest. But there is an awful lot of tree debris down, and that on top of all the big trees that came down during tropical storm Fran, we’ve kind of joked -- it’s not really much of a joke -- but we’ve kind of added the kindling to the bigger timber now. So it does make us primed for some forest fires."

Jim: "Bair says he’s watching the skies with more interest than usual, hoping for a wetter than normal summer -- and an early Fall. He says the mixture of rain and sun over the next year or so will largely determine whether the wood downed by the ice storm gets soggy and rots into life sustaining nutrients, or dries out -- turning the forest floor into a potential tinderbox."

Jim Jones is an independent producer from Washington DC. Our show is underwritten by Subaru, the beauty of all wheel drive with support provided by the National Science Foundation.

Area Info - Shenandoah National Park Service