November 19, 1998 transcript # 260-4
Subject(s): brainstorm
Title: Brainstorm Answer: Take A BreathHi, I'm Dave Thurlow. On a recent Weather Notebook Brainstorm, I asked the following: "What are the chances that you have breathed the same breath as some historical figure such as Copernicus or Caesar?" Well, as usual, we were deluged with calls, and here are but a few of the responses.
"I figure each of us has about a shot, like one in about a thousand, maybe"
"I think that there's a slim chance that we're breathing the same air."
"One in ten thousand."
"The chances are very good."
"I doubt that I am breathing the same air molecules that Copernicus breathed.
"One in 2.5 million."
"I say ten percent."
"One in a billion."
So which one is it? Well, here's Dr. Laurie Snell, an expert in Chance at Dartmouth College.
Dr. Snell: "Your breath has about 400 cc of air, and hence about 10:22 molecules. The whole atmosphere has about 10:44 molecules. Thus, each of the 10:24 molecules in your breath has a one in 10:24 chance of coming from Caesar's last breath. Thus you can expect an average of about one of Caesar's molecules in each of your breaths. The chance that you do not have a molecule is about .37. Thus, in fact, you have a 63 percent chance of having one of Caesar's last breaths in one of your breaths."
This means that in one breath, you have at least a 63 percent chance of breathing a molecule of air from anyone who ever lived in the last 2000 years. And that's just one breath; boy, talk about a small world.
The Weather Notebook is produced by Bryan Sejvar. The music you hear in the background was composed and performed by George Brandl.
The Weather Notebook is underwritten by Subaru, the beauty of all-wheel drive, with support provided by the National Science Foundation.
More on Caesar's last breath and other statistical concepts courtesy of Chance News.