The Weather Notebook: Visionary or Quack?

Visionary or Quack?
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Dave Thurlow, Host

Piers Corbyn
Hi, I'm Dave Thurlow from the Mount Washington Observatory and this is The Weather Notebook. Piers Corbyn is a trained meteorologist, not a magician, yet he routinely performs the meteorological equivalent of pulling a rabbit out of a hat: he forecasts the weather months into the future. We're not talking about generalized 'outlooks' of higher or lower than average temperature and precipitation like those issued by the Climate Prediction Center, but rather detailed, daily forecasts issued up to nearly a year in advance.

The London-based Corbyn, though he enjoys these kinds of weather wagers, earns the bulk of his income from a multi-million dollar business forecasting for such clients as Britain's Coca-Cola bottler, Yorkshire Electricity Group, and Monsanto, along with filmmakers who depend on his long-term forecasts to set shooting schedules. Corbyn's Weather Action company, founded in 1995, commands annual fees as high as $40,000 for continually updated forecasts and analyses of climate trends; for a couple of hundred dollars, Weather Action will fax you short-, middle-, and long-range forecasts tailored to your region.

So, how does he do it? Though the details remain his secret, Corbyn's method is basically a combination of old-fashioned empirical forecasting with careful scrutiny of solar activity. Critics insist that Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique must be considered a form of quackery until he reveals his 'secrets' in a peer-reviewed journal -- which Corbyn has vowed he will do in good time.

Will history judge Piers Corbyn a visionary or just another sun-spotted crank? Corbyn himself would no doubt scoff at this answer, but, really, it's too soon to predict.

Thanks to contributing writer David Laksin. Our show is underwritten by Subaru with major support provided by the National Science Foundation.