The Weather Notebook: Better Forecasters

Better Forecasters
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Dave Thurlow, Host

'It's getting better all the time' -- that hyper-optimistic refrain from the Beatles' song -- would be an appropriate motto for weather forecasters, if they were inclined to sing. Yes, we poke fun at them whenever they get it wrong and blame them for all the weather we don't like, but the plain truth is that weather forecasts have been getting dramatically better in the last half of the 20th century and give every promise of equal, if not greater improvement in the years ahead.

Hi, I'm Dave Thurlow from the Mount Washington Observatory and this is The Weather Notebook.

Just how much better? Roughly speaking, National Weather Service forecasts have improved by a full day in the past 15 years -- in other words, today's three-day forecast is as good as the two-day forecast used to be back in 1984. Such advances are also seen with severe weather , twenty years ago, forecasters managed a mere three-minute advance warning for tornadoes, while today the national average has jumped to 11 minutes, and the advance notice for flash floods has gone from an average of 8 minutes to an average of 50 minutes warning.

Meteorologists attribute the forward motion to two main factors: 1) more data and 2) faster computers with better programs, also called models. A new generation of weather satellites, the much touted Doppler radar network, improved data collection over the oceans, bigger and better computers, and more refined numerical models are together making a difference at every level of the forecast process, from this season's hurricane outlook right down to tomorrow's chance of showers.

Thanks to contributing writer David Laskin. The Weather Notebook is underwritten by Subaru with major support provided by the National Science Foundation.