The Weather Notebook: Fifteen Days

Fifteen Days
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Like the Starship Enterprise, AccuWeather is boldly going where no forecast company has ever gone before - out to the distant galaxy of the fifteen-day forecast.

Hi, this is Bryan Yeaton and no, this is not science fiction. Just click on the AccuWeather web site and see for yourself: half a month's worth of weather for any zip code in America.

Dr. Joel N. Myers, AccuWeather's founder and president, says that his staff meteorologists are able to combine the most advanced numerical models with intimate knowledge of local conditions to produce 15-day forecasts that "definitely [have] value and skill."

But not everyone is convinced the click of the mouse is worth it.

Dr. James D. Laver, acting director of Climate Prediction Center says the skill and technology is not sufficient to determine forecasts for Day 8 and beyond. In other words, beyond a week into the future, Laver and other critics believe a forecast specifying "highs in the mid 50s with morning showers" is pretty much a shot in the dark.

Atmospheric scientist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington echoes Laver's skepticism. He says, quote, "We have minimal forecast skill at days 6 to 7, no skill at 8 to 9."

Whether you agree or not, AccuWeather is on the cutting edge-- of science or entertainment, it remains to be seen. On the other hand, what weather nut can resist taking a peek that far into the future?

Thanks today to writer David Laskin of Seattle, Washington. The Weather Notebook is a production of the Mount Washington Observatory and is supported by Subaru and the National Science Foundation. To look into the 15-day crystal ball, go to accuweather.com. And don't forget to visit our website: mountwashington.org!