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El Niño
10/07/2002
Listen in RealAudio 
Like the follow-up to a hit movie, it's time for El Niño II . . . but the sequel may
not live up to the thriller that made El Niño a star. Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton for The
Weather Notebook.
We heard about El Niño in a big way during the winter of 1997-98. That's when the
tropical waters of the eastern Pacific warmed to near-record levels. To qualify as an El
Niño, these surface waters have to warm up about two degrees Fahrenheit. But during
1997-98, some parts of the eastern Pacific warmed more than three times that amount. All that
warm water helped to lure showers and thunderstorms away from their usual home in Indonesia
toward the central Pacific. This led to a chain reaction of weather.
During a typical El Niño, Indonesia dries out; the deserts of Peru get a rare shot of
rain; and there are fewer Atlantic hurricanes. In the U.S., El Niño tends to focus
winter rainfall along the Sun Belt, from southern California to Texas and Florida. Northern
states tend to be fairly dry and mild. Of course, last winter was the mildest ever for parts
of the Midwest and Northeast, so even with El Niño's help, this winter might feel
cooler than the last one.
El Niño typically intensifies in the fall and weakens in the spring, so look for the
biggest impacts during the winter. But no guarantees. El Niño simply shifts the odds
toward certain types of weather. And that may not be so bad, at least for North America. Some
studies show that El Niño reduces the chance of bitter cold, heavy snow, and high
heating bills-good for the economy unless you run a ski resort or drive a snowplow.
Bob Henson contributed today's story. The Weather Notebook comes from The Mount Washington
Observatory, with help from The National Science Foundation, and Subaru of America.
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