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Timber
11/19/2002
Listen in RealAudio 
Some like it hot, and some don't, but trees have little choice in the matter; they can't pack
up and move when the climate warms. Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton for The Weather Notebook's weekly
series on Global Climate Change.
Most research on trees and climate change has focused on threats, such as the loss of sugar
maples across a warmer New England. If Vermont maple syrup is one of the potential losers,
then who might be the winners? A new study has found that the world's timber industry could
actually thrive in a warmer world but not every country will prosper. In fact, the U.S.
timber industry would probably suffer, at least in the short run, according to a team led by
Brent Sohngen at Ohio State University.
Sohngen's group recently completed the first-ever global study of forest change which combined
climate models with an ecology model. Trees tend to grow more quickly in tropical climates
than at middle and high latitudes. Across the U.S., Sohngen's model shows hardwoods like oak,
maple, and cherry dying off, eventually to be replaced by fast-growing Southern pine and other
softwoods. Canada, Russia and China will see the same process.
Eventually, the timber harvest becomes more productive than before, but the shift could take
decades. Meanwhile, producers in the tropics would be able to shift right away to
faster-growing species, and get an edge in the market, according to the model. Of course,
trees are more than commodities. As the researchers point out, models can never tell us how
different it would feel to spend an autumn day walking through a young pine forest where
majestic maples once ruled.
Bob Henson gave us today's story. Our Climate Change Series is supported by the New England
Science Center Collaborative, and the Roy A. Hunt Foundation.
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