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Unlucky Streak
Mon May 19, 2003
Listen in RealAudio 
Although America's Tornado Alley has the reputation for high tornado activity, the likelihood
that any single community will be struck during a given year is actually quite small. Hi, I'm
Bryan Yeaton for The Weather Notebook.
In Kansas, a state legendary for tornadoes, the chances of a tornado striking within any
specific square mile during the year are about one in 1,600. Therefore, a Kansas township,
covering 36 square miles, might expect a tornado strike about once every 50 years.
On the afternoon of May 20, 1916, when an F2 tornado struck three miles east of the
north-central Kansas community of Codell, Paradise Township, likely no one was greatly
surprised. This was, after all, Kansas. The storm unroofed one house and destroyed three
barns, but no injuries or fatalities resulted.
Codell area residents were shocked when, exactly one year later, the afternoon of May 20,
1917, a multiple-vortex tornado passed two miles northwest of town. Again, no injuries or
deaths were reported, but the F3 storm destroyed barns on six farms.
Folks around Codell were undoubtably nervous when May 20 dawned in 1918. And before the day
was out, they must have wondered what they had done to anger the weather gods. This time, an
F4 tornado bore down directly on Codell's town center. Although many downtown buildings were
blown apart, again, no one in town was killed.
The odds of tornadoes striking within the township in three consecutive years are about one in
10,000. The odds for strikes on the same day in consecutive years are astronomical.
Our show is underwritten by Subaru of America and The National Science Foundation.
Today's Links
Pictures connected to Codell, Kansas
http://www.geocities.com/jackiej53/Codell.html
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