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Climate Prediction
Thu Feb 17, 2005
Listen in RealAudio 
Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton and this is The Weather Notebook.
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center get paid to go out on a limb -- not just a
couple of babysteps, but way out to the point where the limb is barely a twig
suspended over the meteorological abyss. A division of the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction, the CPC is mandated to take the long view weatherwise --
forecasting for next week, next month, even into next year.
But don't ask them whether it's going to snow in Chicago next February 17. Instead,
CPC forecasters take the two basic ingredients of weather -- temperature and precip --
and predict whether each of these is going to be above normal, below normal or just
plain normal for a given time. The time frames they work with range from the relatively
modest six to 10 day outlook all the way up to a seasonal round-up that covers the next
15 months. Of course being limited to three flavors of normal makes CPC forecasts a
little dry -- so they have recently added a new feature called "Threats Assessment" in
which analysts point out potential extreme events like floods and freezes. Threats
Assessment provides a heads-up that next month's normal precip actually means
three weeks of drought followed by a spell of torrential rains. CPC Acting Director Jim
Laver says,. "It's the qualitative link between weather and climate."
The CPC may not be much help if you're wondering whether to risk an outdoor
wedding next June but if you're a farmer, emergency manager or energy broker, odds
are you're a regular guest at their web site.
Need that address? Take a risk and go to our website at www.mountwashington.org.
Speaking of that, this program is a production of the Mount Washington Observatory. It
is supported generously by Subaru of America. And today we express our gratitude to
writer David Laskin of Seattle, Wash.
Today's Links
The Climate Prediction Center Website
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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