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Hot Trees
Tue Jul 26, 2005
Listen in RealAudio 
When it gets hot, we can just turn on the AC, but trees have little choice in the matter; they can't pack up and move as the climate warms. Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton for The Weather Notebook's weekly Climate Change series.
Most research to date on trees and climate change has focused on threats, such as the loss of sugar maples across a warmer New England. But, if, say, Vermont is one of the potential losers, then who might be the winners? One study has found that the world's timber industry could actually thrive in a warmer world, but not every country will prosper. In fact, the U.S. timber industry would probably suffer, at least in the short run, according to a team led by Brent Sohngen at Ohio State University.
Sohngen's group completed the first-ever global study of forest change that combined climate models with an ecological model. Trees tend to grow more quickly in tropical climates than at middle and high latitudes. Across the U.S., Sohngen's model shows hardwoods like oak, maple, and cherry dying off, eventually to be replaced by fast-growing Southern pine and other softwoods. Canada, Russia and China will see a similar pattern.
Eventually, the timber harvest may become more productive than before, but the shift could take decades. And, some researchers predict that the southern US will actually see tree harvests decline. Meanwhile, producers in the tropics would be able to shift right away to faster-growing species, and get an edge on the market.
Of course, trees are more than just commodities. As the researchers point out, models can never tell us how it would feel to spend an autumn day walking through a piney wood where majestic maples once ruled.
Bob Henson sent in today's story. Our Climate Change Series is supported by Environmental Defense. The Weather Notebook is generously funded by Subaru of America.
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